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Previously we looked at US Cellular's Spectrum Ownership via Spektrum Metrics Map Views. In this post, we will utilize Spektrum Metrics' Mobile Carrier - Spectrum Ownership Analysis Tool to evaluate how USCellular's low band spectrum will fit with the other national carriers. In the County Analysis tab, we can see each carrier's total spectrum and the amount of low band spectrum. In this view we used the autofilters to select only the counties where USCellular has spectrum. This allows us to see how each of the national carriers spectrum assets compare in the counties where they can acquire spectrum from USCellular. This view reveals that USCellular has very limited overall spectrum in the largest markets. They have 20MHz of spectrum in one of the Boston CMA counties, and 12MHz in most of the St. Louis counties.
When we look at the frequency band information in the same analysis tab, we can see the counties where USCellular's low band spectrum includes cellular spectrum. We can also see whether AT&T or Verizon is missing cellular spectrum in a county where USCellular's spectrum would fill a need. Cellular spectrum is critical to both Verizon and AT&T because they have anchored their low band 5G coverage on that spectrum. To evaluate the strategic plan for USCellular's cellular spectrum further, we are going to copy the data from this table into another Excel tab for further analysis.
Next we want to analyze which counties Verizon would like to acquire the USCellular cellular spectrum, which counties AT&T would like to acquire, and which counties they both would want, meaning neither carrier has cellular spectrum. After determining which counties align with Verizon and those that align with AT&T, we will calculate the MHz-POPs that each carrier would likely acquire. When we bring the county data over, we leave the column that includes the 2021 population for each county along with the appropriate spectrum depth columns.. After identifying the counties where there is a clear desire from AT&T or Verizon for the cellular spectrum, we can calculate the MHz-POPs for each carriers desired acquisition by multiplying the population by the spectrum depth in the "New" columns.
In our cellular MHz-POPs analysis, below, subtotals for spectrum Verizon would acquire, AT&T would acquire, and the spectrum that could be acquired by either company are listed.
Carrier | Desired MHz-POPs (Cellular) |
Verizon | 214,164,150 |
AT&T | 424,149,500 |
Either | 34,827,725 |
The news that TDS is exploring "strategic alternatives" for USCellular has created a heightened interest in how our spectrum ownership tools can be used to breakdown the components of USCellular's spectrum to highlight where they would create the most synergies for the remaining wireless carriers.
I want to initially look at the cellular bands, since both AT&T and Verizon are utilizing the cellular bands for their low band 5G. From the Spectrum Depth Maps below you can see that there are areas in both carrier's footprints that lack a true 5G coverage strategy.
Verizon:
AT&T:
Now, looking at the USCellular map, it is clear that USCellular is the primary cellular licensee after AT&T and Verizon.
USCellular:
It is also helpful to look at our Spectrum Ownership Maps to see how USCellular's spectrum aligns with the two cellular licenses (A and B). Our Spectrum Ownership Maps show the primary licensee for each channel for every county and territory in the United States. Each county that a national carrier controls is color-coded with their branding colors.
Cellular A:
The Cellular A map indicates that there are counties in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California that fit perfectly with the overall AT&T A band licenses. Note: the white counties are controlled by various smaller carriers which can be identified by "flying" over the county in our Web Spectrum Viewer Mapping Module.
Cellular B:
The Cellular B map indicates the counties in Washington and Oregon that would be a natural fit with Verizon's B channel licenses.
Our next blog with utilize some of the tabular analysis functions from the Spectrum Ownership Analysis Tool starting with an assignment of each cellular county to AT&T or Verizon, concluding with a MHz-POPs quantity for the acquisition of USCellular's cellular spectrum.
Late last year, AT&T began to discuss refarming their low-band spectrum for 5G, but they didn't indicate which of their low band spectrum blocks would be used. With some spectrum acquisitions that have been filed over the last 6 months, I believe their plans are becoming more clear. The 3 blocks of low band spectrum that AT&T controls are 700MHz (A,B, and C channels), 700MHz (FirstNet), and the Cellular (A & B channels). I am going to assume that the FirstNet spectrum is not being considered since it must support public safety networks, leaving the 700MHz and Cellular bands for refarming. The first indicator, was AT&T's acquisition of FBS 700's spectrum in South Dakota and their acquisition of part of C Spire's 700MHz spectrum in the southeast.
To see AT&T's total 700MHz spectrum, we used Allnet Insights' Mobile Carrier - Spectrum Ownership Analysis Tool to total AT&T's ownership of the 700MHz A, B, and C channels in each US county. In the counties where they own all three channels, they could deploy a 15MHz 5G channel. From the map below, it appears that AT&T would cover most of the US with a 10MHz 5G channel.
The next map highlights the counties where AT&T controls both cellular channels (A & B). In the limited markets where they control both channels (Texas and Florida), they could have a 5G channel size of 20MHz, but for most of the country that would be limited to a 10MHz 5G channel size. It is important to remember that the areas where AT&T doesn't control any cellular spectrum the bands are controlled by USCellular and/or Verizon, making cellular spectrum acquisitions unlikely.
Another important way to evaluate the usefulness of each band is to measure the amount of population that can be reach with the licenses in each band. To evaluate this we used the Licensed POPs Analysis Module from the Mobile Carrier - Spectrum Ownership Analysis Tool. Since AT&T's 700MHz spectrum covers 44 million addition people compared to AT&T's Cellular spectrum, I believe that AT&T is planning to utilize their 700MHz spectrum for their upcoming Low Band 5G deployments. This appears to be confirmed by AT&T's recent acquisitions.